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A lesson on the business cycle and how the government uses fiscal policy to try and keep growth going and inflation in check and what this means for traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets.

Fiscal policy can be defined for our purposes very simply as anything relating to government spending and taxation. Before looking at the fiscal policy role of government in trying to influence the economy, one must first have an understanding of the business cycle. For a number of reasons which are widely debated the economy goes through repeated periods of growth and contraction over time which can be broken down into the following phases.

1. A Contraction where economic activity and growth slows and can turn negative
2. Trough where the economy stops contracting and a new expansion begins
3. An Expansion or the speeding up of economic growth.
4. A Peak where the growth of the economy maxes out and begins to turn downward

We could spend many months going over and debating why this is but for our purposes it is simply important to understand that, while the timing and length of each of these phases has varied widely, the above pattern repeats itself over and over again throughout history. This is important for us as traders to understand as different phases of the business cycle and changes in peoples forecasts of where the economy is in those cycles is arguably the greatest factor which effects the price level of every market.

Prior to the great depression the US Government had a pretty hands off approach in regards to the business cycle. Since the great depression however the government has played a much more active role in the economy with its stated goals being to act to facilitate full employment and price stability. To help understand these goals and the balancing act that goes on between them as they often conflict, lets look at how each relates to the different phases of the business cycle.

1. During an expansion we start to see more people employed as companies begin to sell more goods and services and need to hire more people to keep up with the demand. As economic growth picks up and more people are employed there are more people spending their paychecks which can cause prices to rise, something also known as inflation. Because of this effect on prices the government's primary concern here will normally be trying to keep prices stable and inflation in check without hurting economic growth. The two things they can do in regards to Fiscal Policy to try and keep prices in check and inflation at bay are:

a. Raise Taxes: By raising taxes money is taken away from the consumer who now has less money to spend helping to counteract the demand that is pushing prices up and causing inflation.

and/or

1. Intro to Technical Analysis
2. Introduction to Dow Theory
3. Second 3 Tenets of Dow Theory
4. How to Read Stock Charts
5. How to Trade Support and Resistance
6. Multi Time Frame Analysis
7. Introduction to the Double Top and Double Bottom Charting Pattern
8. How to Trade Double Tops Like a Pro
9. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 1
10. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 2
11. How to Trade the Wedge Chart Pattern Like a Pro Part 1
12. How to Trade the Wedge Chart Pattern Like a Pro Part 2
13. How to Trade the Flag/Pennant Patterns Like a Pro Part 1
14. How to Trade the Flag/Pennant Patterns Like a Pro Part 2
15. How to Trade Triangle Chart Patterns Like a Pro Part 1
16. How to Trade Triangle Chart Patterns Like a Pro Part 2
17. Learn to Trade with Technical Indicators
18. How to Trade Moving Averages Like a Pro (Part 1)
19. How toTrade Moving Averages Like a Pro (Part 2)
20. How to Trade the MACD Indicator Like a Pro (Part 1)
21. MACD Indicator: Trade it Like a Pro (Part 2)
22. How to Trade the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Like a Pro
23. How to Trade Stochastics Like the Pro's Do
24. The Difference Between the Fast, Slow and Full Stochastic
25. How to Trade Bollinger Bands - Stocks, Futures, Forex
26. How to Trade the Average Directional Index (ADX)
27. How to Trade the Parabolic SAR
28. How to Trade Candlestick Chart Formations Part 1
29. How to Trade Spinning Tops and Doji Candlestick Patterns
30. How to Trade the Bullish/Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks
31. How to Trade the Hammer Hanging Man Candlesticks
32. How to Trade the Morning/Evening Star Candlestick Pattern
33. How to Trade the Inverted Hammer/Shooting Star Patterns
34. Why Most Traders Lose Money and The Solution
35. Why Traders Hold On to Losing Positions
36. Two Trading Mistakes Which Will Destroy Your Account
37. Herd Mentality is the Psychology That Leads to Big Trading Losses
38. Profit Expectations: What Millionaire Traders Know
39. How to Join the Minority of Traders Who Are Successful
40. How To Determine Where to Put Your Initial Stop Loss Order
41. How to Use the Average True Range (ATR) To Set Stops
42. How to Up Your Chances for Profit When Setting Stops
43. How to Reduce the Chances of Being Stopped Out on a Trade
44. How Successful Traders Use Indicators to Place Stops
45. Stop Your Mind From Causing You to Take Profits Too Soon
46. How To Use Trailing Stops
47. Why Position Sizing is So Important in Trading
48. Why Fixed Position Sizing Is Not the Best Way to Trade
49. Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies
50. How to Set Trade Position Size for Maximum Profits
51. Maximize Trading Profits with Correct Position Sizing 2
52. Fundamental Analysis and The US Economy
53. A Simple Explanation of the US Economy for Traders
54. Simple Explanation of The US Economy For Traders Part 2
55. The Business Cycle and Fiscal Policy - What Traders Know
56. How Interest Rates Move Markets
57. What Traders Know About Interest Rates Part 2
58. What Traders Need to Know About The Structure of The Fed
59. How the Fed Changes Interest Rates
60. How to Determine When the Fed is Going to Change Rates
61. Why Markets Move Ahead of Interest Rate Announcements
62. How to Trade the GDP Number (Part 1)
63. The Components of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
64. Intro to Trading Non Farm Payrolls (NFP's)
65. Trading the News - Economic Numbers - Retail Sales
66. Trading the News - Economic Numbers - ISM Manufacturing
67. The Producer Price Index (PPI)
68. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
69. Trade the News - Existing Home Sales Index
70. How To Interpret the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
71. How to Interpret the Index of Leading Economic Indicators
72. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Day Trading
73. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Swing Trading
74. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Position Trading
75. How to Keep a Trading Journal
76. The Most Important Attributes of a Good Trading Journal
77. The 20 Components of a Successful Trading Plan

This is a series of 77 short video lessons meant to give traders an introduction to the basics of trading as well as the components necessary to develop a profitable trading plan.