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An overview of the first three tenets of Dow Theory. The second in a series on technical analysis for active traders of the stock, futures and forex markets.

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VIDEO TRANSCRIPTION (to see this transcription with links, and images of charts, go here: www.informedtrades.com/1964-dow-theory.html)

In the last lesson on technical analysis we talked a bit about the different ways that traders analyze the markets. In this lesson we will look at the history of technical analysis and something known as Dow Theory.

Most consider the father of technical analysis to be Charles Dow, the founder of Dow Jones and Company which publishes the Wall Street Journal. Around 1900 he wrote a series of papers which looked at the way prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Index moved. After analyzing the Indexes he outlined his belief that markets tend to move in similar ways over time. These papers, which were expanded on by other traders in the years that followed, became known as "Dow Theory".

Although Dow Theory was written over 100 years ago most of its points are still relevant today. Dow focused on stock indexes in his writings but the basic principles are relevant to any market.

Dow Theory is broken down into 6 basic tenets. In this lesson we are going to take a look at the first 3 and then finish up our conversation of Dow Theory in the next lesson by looking at the last three.

The first tenet of Dow Theory is that The Markets Have 3 Trends.

• Up Trends which are defined as a time when successive rallies in a security price close at levels higher than those achieved in previous rallies and when lows occur at levels higher than previous lows.
• Down Trends which are defined as when the market makes successive lower lows and lower highs.
• Corrections which are defined as a move after the market makes a move sharply in one direction where the market recedes in the opposite direction before continuing in its original direction.

The second tenet of Dow Theory is that Trends Have 3 Phases:

• The accumulation phase which is when the "expert" traders are actively taking positions which are against the majority of people in the market. Price does not change much during this phase as the "experts" are in the minority so they are not a large enough group to move the market.
• The public participation phase which is when the public at large catches on to what the "experts" know and begin to trade in the same direction. Rapid price change can occur during this phase as everyone piles onto one side of a trade.
• The Excess Phase where rampant speculation occurs and the "smart money" starts to exit their positions.

Here you can start to see how the psychology of investors and traders comes into play an important concept which we will delver deeper into in later lessons.

The third tenet of Dow Theory is that The Markets Discount All News, meaning that once news is released it is quickly reflected in the price of an asset. On this point Dow Theory is in line with the efficient market hypothesis which states that:

"the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information and therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect the collective beliefs of all investors about future prospects."

Source: Wikipedia

This concept that the markets discount all news is one that is sited in arguments in favor of using technical analysis as a tool to profit from the markets as if it is true that markets already discount all fundamental factors then the only way to beat the market would be through technical analysis.

So now you should have a good understanding of the first three tenets of Dow Theory including the different types of trends, the different phases of trends, and Dow's concept that the price of an asset already reflects all known news. In our next lesson on Dow theory we are going to look at the second three tenents.

1. Intro to Technical Analysis
2. Introduction to Dow Theory
3. Second 3 Tenets of Dow Theory
4. How to Read Stock Charts
5. How to Trade Support and Resistance
6. Multi Time Frame Analysis
7. Introduction to the Double Top and Double Bottom Charting Pattern
8. How to Trade Double Tops Like a Pro
9. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 1
10. How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern Part 2
11. How to Trade the Wedge Chart Pattern Like a Pro Part 1
12. How to Trade the Wedge Chart Pattern Like a Pro Part 2
13. How to Trade the Flag/Pennant Patterns Like a Pro Part 1
14. How to Trade the Flag/Pennant Patterns Like a Pro Part 2
15. How to Trade Triangle Chart Patterns Like a Pro Part 1
16. How to Trade Triangle Chart Patterns Like a Pro Part 2
17. Learn to Trade with Technical Indicators
18. How to Trade Moving Averages Like a Pro (Part 1)
19. How toTrade Moving Averages Like a Pro (Part 2)
20. How to Trade the MACD Indicator Like a Pro (Part 1)
21. MACD Indicator: Trade it Like a Pro (Part 2)
22. How to Trade the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Like a Pro
23. How to Trade Stochastics Like the Pro's Do
24. The Difference Between the Fast, Slow and Full Stochastic
25. How to Trade Bollinger Bands - Stocks, Futures, Forex
26. How to Trade the Average Directional Index (ADX)
27. How to Trade the Parabolic SAR
28. How to Trade Candlestick Chart Formations Part 1
29. How to Trade Spinning Tops and Doji Candlestick Patterns
30. How to Trade the Bullish/Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks
31. How to Trade the Hammer Hanging Man Candlesticks
32. How to Trade the Morning/Evening Star Candlestick Pattern
33. How to Trade the Inverted Hammer/Shooting Star Patterns
34. Why Most Traders Lose Money and The Solution
35. Why Traders Hold On to Losing Positions
36. Two Trading Mistakes Which Will Destroy Your Account
37. Herd Mentality is the Psychology That Leads to Big Trading Losses
38. Profit Expectations: What Millionaire Traders Know
39. How to Join the Minority of Traders Who Are Successful
40. How To Determine Where to Put Your Initial Stop Loss Order
41. How to Use the Average True Range (ATR) To Set Stops
42. How to Up Your Chances for Profit When Setting Stops
43. How to Reduce the Chances of Being Stopped Out on a Trade
44. How Successful Traders Use Indicators to Place Stops
45. Stop Your Mind From Causing You to Take Profits Too Soon
46. How To Use Trailing Stops
47. Why Position Sizing is So Important in Trading
48. Why Fixed Position Sizing Is Not the Best Way to Trade
49. Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies
50. How to Set Trade Position Size for Maximum Profits
51. Maximize Trading Profits with Correct Position Sizing 2
52. Fundamental Analysis and The US Economy
53. A Simple Explanation of the US Economy for Traders
54. Simple Explanation of The US Economy For Traders Part 2
55. The Business Cycle and Fiscal Policy - What Traders Know
56. How Interest Rates Move Markets
57. What Traders Know About Interest Rates Part 2
58. What Traders Need to Know About The Structure of The Fed
59. How the Fed Changes Interest Rates
60. How to Determine When the Fed is Going to Change Rates
61. Why Markets Move Ahead of Interest Rate Announcements
62. How to Trade the GDP Number (Part 1)
63. The Components of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
64. Intro to Trading Non Farm Payrolls (NFP's)
65. Trading the News - Economic Numbers - Retail Sales
66. Trading the News - Economic Numbers - ISM Manufacturing
67. The Producer Price Index (PPI)
68. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
69. Trade the News - Existing Home Sales Index
70. How To Interpret the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
71. How to Interpret the Index of Leading Economic Indicators
72. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Day Trading
73. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Swing Trading
74. The Advantages and Disadvantages of Position Trading
75. How to Keep a Trading Journal
76. The Most Important Attributes of a Good Trading Journal
77. The 20 Components of a Successful Trading Plan

This is a series of 77 short video lessons meant to give traders an introduction to the basics of trading as well as the components necessary to develop a profitable trading plan.