Overview:
This lecture gives a brief history of the young field of financial theory, which began in business schools quite separate from economics, and of my growing interest in the field and in Wall Street. A cornerstone of standard financial theory is the efficient markets hypothesis, but that has been discredited by the financial crisis of 2007-09. This lecture describes the kinds of questions standard financial theory nevertheless answers well. It also introduces the leverage cycle as a critique of standard financial theory and as an explanation of the crisis. The lecture ends with a class experiment illustrating a situation in which the efficient markets hypothesis works surprisingly well.

Reading assignment:
Ross, Corporate Finance, pp. 1-20
Sharpe, Investments, pp. 1-25, 47-91
Bodie, Finance, pp. 1-59

1. Why Finance?
2. Utilities, Endowments, and Equilibrium
3. Computing Equilibrium
4. Efficiency, Assets, and Time
5. Present Value Prices and the Real Rate of Interest
6. Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest
7. Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice, Collateral. Present Value and the Vocabulary of Finance
8. How a Long-Lived Institution Figures an Annual Budget. Yield
9. Yield Curve Arbitrage
10. Dynamic Present Value
11. Social Security
12. Overlapping Generations Models of the Economy
13. Demography and Asset Pricing: Will the Stock Market Decline when the Baby Boomers Retire?
14. Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk
15. Uncertainty and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis
16. Backward Induction and Optimal Stopping Times
17. Callable Bonds and the Mortgage Prepayment Option
18. Modeling Mortgage Prepayments and Valuing Mortgages
19. History of the Mortgage Market: A Personal Narrative
20. Dynamic Hedging
21. Dynamic Hedging and Average Life
22. Risk Aversion and the Capital Asset Pricing Theorem
23. The Mutual Fund Theorem and Covariance Pricing Theorems
24. Risk, Return, and Social Security
25. The Leverage Cycle and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
26. The Leverage Cycle and Crashes

This course attempts to explain the role and the importance of the financial system in the global economy. Rather than separating off the financial world from the rest of the economy, financial equilibrium is studied as an extension of economic equilibrium. The course also gives a picture of the kind of thinking and analysis done by hedge funds.

Course Structure:
This Yale College course, taught on campus twice per week for 75 minutes, was recorded for Open Yale Courses in Fall 2009.